The Habagat season is officially over in the Philippines.
PAGASA announced on October 5, 2026 that the Southwest Monsoon, locally known as Habagat, has ended following a noticeable shift in the country’s weather pattern.
For many Filipinos, that immediately raises another question:
When will Amihan start?
The short answer is that we’re now entering the transition period between the two monsoons. Northeasterly winds are already beginning to affect parts of Northern Luzon, but as of October 6, PAGASA has not yet officially declared the nationwide onset of the Northeast Monsoon or Amihan.
Based on PAGASA’s seasonal guidance and the country’s normal climate pattern, Amihan typically begins from around the third week of October through the first week of November. For 2026, PAGASA has indicated that the transition could become more apparent during the second half to latter part of October.
So yes, Habagat is over.
But that doesn’t necessarily mean you’ll wake up tomorrow to sweater weather in Manila.
Let’s look at what exactly changed, when Amihan could begin, and what Filipinos can expect over the next several weeks.
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PAGASA Officially Ends Habagat 2026
PAGASA officially declared the termination of the Southwest Monsoon on October 5, 2026.
According to the state weather bureau, several changes in the atmosphere have been observed over the past few days:
- The high-pressure system over East Asia has been strengthening.
- The Intertropical Convergence Zone or ITCZ has been moving farther south.
- Southwesterly winds have weakened.
- Rainfall associated with Habagat has decreased.
Forecasts indicate that these conditions are expected to continue.
Because of these developments, PAGASA declared the 2026 Habagat season officially finished.
The Rainy Season Has Also Ended in Parts of the Philippines
The announcement has another important meaning.
The end of Habagat also marks the official termination of the rainy season over the western sections of Luzon and the Visayas.
These are the areas that usually receive the most rain when Habagat is active because southwesterly winds bring moisture from the surrounding seas.
During an active Habagat, places commonly affected include:
- Metro Manila
- Central Luzon
- Ilocos Region
- CALABARZON
- MIMAROPA
- Western Visayas
- Other western-facing portions of Luzon and Visayas
When Habagat is enhanced by a tropical cyclone or low-pressure area, prolonged heavy rain can occur even when the storm itself is far from land.
That happened several times during the 2026 season.
When Did Habagat 2026 Start?
PAGASA declared the start of the Southwest Monsoon on May 30, 2026.
At the time, the weather bureau observed southwesterly winds over the western section of the country, along with broader atmospheric changes signaling that Habagat was becoming established.
The official onset of the rainy season over western Luzon and the Visayas followed on June 4.
That means the 2026 Habagat season lasted from May 30 until its termination was announced on October 5.
Habagat 2026 Brought Episodes of Very Heavy Rain
This wasn’t a quiet Habagat season.
One notable event occurred in late August when a low-pressure area enhanced the Southwest Monsoon and produced persistent heavy rainfall across parts of Luzon.
PAGASA reported that rainfall became particularly intense from August 27 to 29.
The Science Garden station in Quezon City recorded 305.4 millimeters of rain over three days from August 28 to 30.
Western Luzon, Metro Manila and Rizal were among the areas that experienced particularly heavy rainfall, with flooding, landslides and transportation disruptions reported during the event.
So after months of repeated heavy-rain episodes, the October announcement represents a genuine shift in the country’s seasonal weather pattern.
So When Will Amihan 2026 Start?
Here’s the important part.
As of October 6, 2026, PAGASA has ended Habagat but has not yet formally declared the start of the Northeast Monsoon season nationwide.
The Philippines is essentially in between the two major monsoons.
PAGASA’s historical climate information places the normal onset of Amihan from around the third week of October through the first week of November.
Recent PAGASA guidance has also pointed toward Amihan becoming established during the latter part of October.
So a reasonable expectation is:
Possible Amihan onset: second half to late October 2026
However, this should not be treated as an exact start date.
PAGASA doesn’t simply choose a date on the calendar and declare, “Amihan starts today.”
The agency monitors actual atmospheric conditions before making the official announcement.
Why Can’t PAGASA Give an Exact Amihan Start Date Yet?
Monsoons aren’t like holidays with fixed dates.
PAGASA watches several meteorological signals before declaring the Northeast Monsoon officially underway.
These include changes such as:
- Strengthening high pressure over East Asia
- Persistent northeasterly wind flow
- Increasing atmospheric pressure
- Cooling temperatures
- Repeated surges of cool, dry air toward the Philippines
The declaration comes when these conditions become established enough to indicate that the Northeast Monsoon has become the dominant seasonal weather system.
In 2025, for example, Habagat officially ended on October 6, but PAGASA didn’t declare the start of Amihan until October 27—three weeks later.
That’s a good example of why “Habagat has ended” and “Amihan has started” aren’t necessarily announced on consecutive days.
Northeasterly Winds Are Already Arriving
Even though the formal Amihan declaration hasn’t happened yet, we’re already seeing the early signs of the seasonal change.
PAGASA forecast the first surge of northeasterly winds reaching extreme Northern Luzon around October 6.
Its latest sub-seasonal outlook also shows northeasterly wind flow affecting Northern Luzon and portions of Eastern Luzon during the October 5–11 period.
This is exactly the type of transition we normally see before the Northeast Monsoon becomes fully established.
People in Batanes and other far northern parts of Luzon may therefore notice the change first.
Metro Manila usually feels it later.
What Is the Difference Between Northeasterly Wind Flow and Amihan?
You’ll probably hear PAGASA forecasts mentioning “northeasterly wind flow” before the official Amihan announcement.
They aren’t necessarily the same thing.
A northeasterly wind flow simply means winds are coming from the northeast.
That can already occur during the seasonal transition.
Amihan, on the other hand, refers to the established Northeast Monsoon—the broader seasonal weather pattern dominated by cool, dry northeasterly winds coming from the Asian continent.
So hearing that northeasterly winds are affecting Northern Luzon doesn’t automatically mean PAGASA has officially declared the Amihan season.
Think of it as an early preview.
When Does Amihan Usually Start?
Based on PAGASA climate records, the normal onset of the Northeast Monsoon falls approximately between:
Third week of October to first week of November
For comparison, PAGASA declared the onset of Amihan on October 20 in 2023.
In 2025, the official declaration came on October 27.
The exact date changes from year to year depending on atmospheric conditions.
That’s why late October is generally the period to watch.
Does Amihan Mean Cold Weather Will Immediately Start?
Not necessarily.
This is probably one of the biggest misconceptions.
The beginning of Amihan doesn’t mean Metro Manila instantly turns cold.
The first part of the season may simply bring:
- Less humid mornings
- Cooler winds
- Slightly lower nighttime temperatures
- Less oppressive heat in some areas
- More comfortable early mornings
The genuinely cool weather Filipinos associate with “Amihan season” often becomes more noticeable later, particularly from December through February.
Mountain areas such as Baguio, Benguet and parts of the Cordillera usually experience much more pronounced cooling than Metro Manila.
El Niño Could Make Amihan 2026–2027 Feel Different
There’s another major factor this year: El Niño.
PAGASA has reported that El Niño is expected to strengthen from October 2026 through February 2027.
Its climate assessments warn that this increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall, drought conditions in some areas and warmer-than-normal temperatures.
That means the 2026–2027 Amihan season may not necessarily feel as cool as some previous seasons.
You could still have cool northeasterly winds, especially during strong Amihan surges, while overall temperatures remain relatively warm because of the larger El Niño influence.
So if you’re already preparing your sweaters in Metro Manila, maybe don’t put away the electric fan just yet.
Does the End of Habagat Mean the Philippines Will Stop Getting Rain?
Definitely not.
This is another important distinction.
The end of the rainy season over western Luzon and the Visayas does not mean the entire country suddenly becomes dry.
Several other weather systems can still produce significant rain, including:
- Tropical cyclones
- ITCZ
- Easterlies
- Shear lines
- Localized thunderstorms
- Amihan itself
Eastern portions of the Philippines can actually experience substantial rainfall during the Northeast Monsoon season.
Amihan Can Bring Rain to Eastern Philippines
People sometimes think of Amihan as purely a “cold and dry” weather system.
That’s true for many parts of western and northern Luzon.
But the northeasterly winds travel across the Pacific Ocean before reaching the eastern side of the Philippines.
That means they can pick up moisture along the way.
As a result, areas facing the Pacific can experience cloudy conditions and rain during Amihan.
These can include parts of:
- Cagayan Valley
- Aurora
- Bicol Region
- Eastern Visayas
- Caraga
When Amihan interacts with other weather systems, rainfall can become heavier.
Watch Out for Shear Lines During Amihan
One weather term you’ll probably start hearing more often as Amihan develops is “shear line.”
A shear line forms where the cool northeasterly winds associated with Amihan meet warmer easterly winds.
This convergence can produce widespread clouds and rain.
Shear lines have caused major flooding events in parts of the Philippines in previous years.
PAGASA specifically notes that shear-line occurrences are among the weather hazards that can accompany the Northeast Monsoon season.
So the arrival of Amihan doesn’t eliminate the threat of heavy rainfall.
It simply changes where and how rain is most likely to occur.
Tropical Cyclones Are Still Possible
October is still part of the Philippine tropical cyclone season.
Ending Habagat doesn’t mean typhoons are finished for the year.
In fact, tropical cyclones entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility during the latter part of the year can be particularly important because some tracks shift farther south as the season progresses.
Even during November and December, tropical cyclones can still threaten portions of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.
So don’t use the end of Habagat as a signal to stop monitoring PAGASA weather advisories.
What Happens During the Transition Period?
The period between Habagat and Amihan can produce somewhat inconsistent weather.
On one day, you may notice:
Clear skies.
Warm afternoons.
Light winds.
Then thunderstorms suddenly develop late in the day.
Another day may bring cooler northeasterly winds to Northern Luzon while Metro Manila still feels hot and humid.
Easterlies may dominate other parts of the country.
The ITCZ can also remain active farther south.
This variety is normal because the atmosphere is reorganizing between two major seasonal wind patterns.
What Weather Can Metro Manila Expect?
For Metro Manila, the most noticeable immediate change should be a reduction in prolonged Habagat-type rainfall.
That doesn’t mean rain disappears.
Localized afternoon or evening thunderstorms can still happen.
Tropical cyclones can still influence the capital.
And other weather systems may still bring periods of cloudy and rainy weather.
But the days-long southwest-monsoon rains that frequently affect Metro Manila during peak Habagat season should become less common once the seasonal transition is established.
PAGASA’s declaration specifically marks the end of the rainy season over western sections of Luzon and the Visayas.
When Will Metro Manila Feel Cooler?
Probably not immediately.
The first signs may come in the form of cooler mornings and breezier evenings later in October or November.
More noticeable cooling usually comes once stronger Amihan surges begin affecting Luzon.
December, January and February are generally the months when Filipinos most strongly associate the weather with Amihan.
That’s when you start seeing:
- Lower temperatures in Baguio
- Cooler mornings in Metro Manila
- Strong northeasterly winds
- Rough seas along northern and eastern coasts
- Jackets suddenly appearing at bus terminals at 6 a.m.
Whether the 2026–2027 season becomes particularly cold will depend on how the Amihan interacts with this year’s El Niño conditions.
What About Baguio and Northern Luzon?
Northern Luzon normally feels the seasonal shift earlier and more strongly.
Batanes and areas in the far north are already among the first places expected to experience northeasterly wind flow during this transition.
As Amihan becomes established, cooler conditions gradually extend farther south.
Baguio and the Cordillera usually see much lower temperatures than the lowlands because of their elevation.
So travelers planning a Baguio trip later in the year can expect the cooler season to become increasingly noticeable as we move toward November and December.
Amihan Can Also Make the Sea Rough
There’s another effect travelers should remember.
Strong northeasterly winds can create rough sea conditions, particularly over the northern and eastern seaboards.
When PAGASA declared Amihan in 2025, it specifically warned that successive monsoon surges could produce rough seas over Northern Luzon’s coastal waters.
This becomes important for:
- Fisherfolk
- Small boats
- Island travelers
- Ferry passengers
- Coastal communities
If you’re planning island trips during Amihan season, always check PAGASA’s gale warnings and Coast Guard advisories before traveling.
Habagat vs. Amihan: What’s the Difference?
Here’s the easiest way to remember them.
| Habagat | Amihan |
|---|---|
| Southwest Monsoon | Northeast Monsoon |
| Winds generally come from southwest | Winds generally come from northeast |
| Usually active around May/June to October | Usually active around October/November to March |
| Brings frequent rain to western Philippines | Brings cool, dry air to much of Luzon |
| Often enhanced by tropical cyclones | Can produce strong cold-air surges |
| Heavy rain common in western Luzon and Visayas | Rain can affect eastern Philippines |
| Warm and humid | Generally cooler and drier |
Both are major parts of the Philippine climate.
Neither one means the weather will behave exactly the same every day.
2026 Seasonal Timeline So Far
Here’s a quick look at this year’s transition:
March 23, 2026
PAGASA terminated the previous Northeast Monsoon season.
May 30, 2026
PAGASA declared the start of Habagat.
June 4, 2026
The rainy season officially began over western sections of Luzon and the Visayas.
October 5, 2026
PAGASA officially terminated Habagat and the rainy season over western Luzon and the Visayas.
October 6 onward
Transition period toward Amihan, with northeasterly wind flow already beginning to affect portions of Northern Luzon.
Second half to late October
This is currently the main period to watch for the possible official onset of Amihan, although the actual declaration will depend on PAGASA’s observations.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Habagat 2026 officially over?
Yes.
PAGASA officially declared the termination of the Southwest Monsoon on October 5, 2026.
Is the rainy season over?
PAGASA says the end of Habagat also marks the termination of the rainy season over the western sections of Luzon and the Visayas.
That does not mean rain has ended everywhere in the Philippines.
Has Amihan 2026 officially started?
Not yet as of October 6, 2026.
Northeasterly wind flow is already beginning to affect parts of Northern Luzon, but the formal onset of the Northeast Monsoon still depends on PAGASA’s assessment of atmospheric conditions.
When is Amihan expected to start?
The normal onset period is roughly from the third week of October through the first week of November.
For 2026, the second half to latter part of October is the key period to watch.
Will the weather immediately become cold?
No.
The transition happens gradually.
Northern Luzon generally feels the cooler northeasterly winds first. Metro Manila and areas farther south may take longer to experience noticeable cooling.
When is the coldest part of Amihan?
The cooler conditions associated with Amihan are generally most noticeable during the December-to-February period, especially during strong cold-air surges.
Will it still rain during Amihan?
Yes.
Eastern portions of the Philippines can receive rain from northeasterly winds, while shear lines, easterlies, tropical cyclones and localized thunderstorms can also produce rainfall.
Can typhoons still enter the Philippines after Habagat?
Absolutely.
Tropical cyclones can still enter or develop within the Philippine Area of Responsibility during October, November and even December.
The end of Habagat is not the end of typhoon season.
Will El Niño affect Amihan?
PAGASA expects the ongoing El Niño to strengthen from October 2026 into February 2027, increasing the possibility of below-normal rainfall, drought and warmer-than-usual conditions in many areas.
That could make the upcoming Amihan season feel different from some previous years.
Final Thoughts
Habagat 2026 is officially finished.
PAGASA’s October 5 announcement marks the end of both the Southwest Monsoon season and the rainy season over the western sections of Luzon and the Visayas.
But Amihan hasn’t officially taken over yet.
For now, the Philippines is in that familiar transition period when the southwest winds weaken, the high-pressure system over East Asia strengthens and northeasterly winds gradually begin pushing into Northern Luzon.
Based on PAGASA’s normal climate pattern and current outlook, the second half to latter part of October is the period to watch, with the normal Amihan onset window extending from roughly the third week of October into the first week of November.
So if you’re waiting for cooler mornings in Metro Manila, they’re coming—but probably not overnight.
And even when Amihan officially begins, keep monitoring the weather. Typhoons, shear lines, easterlies and localized thunderstorms can still bring significant rainfall.
For now, we can say goodbye to Habagat 2026.
Next up: Amihan.
